(EOP)Pakistan in 2014: A Hypothetical Scenario

Zaid Hamid, BrassTacks
In order to fully and comprehensively understand the shapes of regional geopolitics to come, we have done a hypothetical scenario creation of the year 2014. Today, India is preparing for war against both China and Pakistan and US wants to use India as strategic partner against both China and Pakistan. Let‘s see how the events shape up between Pakistan and India under the above scenario.
The Environment: The year is 2014
A patriotic and honorable government is in place in Islamabad. It took over in 2010 after a judicial and military coup that removed a corrupt and incompetent regime which had brought the country on the brink of disaster. For the last 4 years, the present government has managed to control the collapse of economy, has reduced corruption radically and has contained terrorism, in turn bringing much needed stability in Pakistan and elevating its stature within the international community and in particular the Muslim world.
The world has been in turmoil, however Pakistanis have, against all odds, managed to keep the nation stable and strong. The Kashmir dispute is still simmering and Afghanistan remains in a delicate state without any strong government and with multiple militias controlling the countryside. There is also strong presence of western forces in Northern regions.
United States and Israel have successfully overrun the entire Middle East, creating various headless states and smaller principalities or weak client satellite states in the Muslim heartland in place of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Israel has annexed the entire Palestinian lands and has even started constructing colonies and settlements into Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Egypt – even extending into parts of Saudi Arabia near Tabuk. The entire Gulf region has become an effective US colony with major US bases spread across the entire region having force projection capability into South Asia, Central Asia and South West China. The entire fuel assets and fuel routes from the Gulf and Central Asia are under US and coalition control.
But there are pockets of fierce resistance in every part of occupied Middle East. Muslim resistance groups and freedom fighters have launched massive war of resistance against US presence in the Muslim lands and are proving to be elusive and deadly foes for the US forces. Afghan resistance remains fierce, still bogging down US and NATO occupation forces even after 13 years of occupation. Pakistan had cut down the supply lines of NATO and NATO was forced to find long and expensive routes from Central Asia and via Iran.
US economy continues to collapse at home. Dollar has been abandoned as a global currency and a new political alliance of North American Union consisting of Mexico, USA and Canada has come into existence on the pattern of EU with plans for a new currency Amero being floated. In dollar terms, US cost of occupation is staggering $20 bn a month with hundreds of casualties in dead and wounded every month. The situation is not stabilizing despite massive injection of US military and economic resources in the region. The quality of life in occupied Muslim lands is getting hopelessly desperate creating an explosive environment for US forces present amongst hostile population.
Terrorism in the US mainland and Europe has forced radical security measures against local Muslim population and a mass migration of Muslim immigrants begin flowing back to the native lands due to fears of persecution in Europe and America. Tension between the West and Islam are at all time high since the crusades in the 10th century.
There is also serious friction building between Russia and United States particularly over establishment of anti-ballistic missile shield by NATO in Eastern Europe and distribution of fuel resources of Caspian and for control of vast economic and military assets in Central Asia. Tensions are running high between US backed Georgia and Russia while the US backed Chechens are also taking advantage of Russian weaknesses to launch even more daring raids into Russian mainland. Tension between Turkish and Russian forces flare up when a group of fleeing Chechens enter Turkey and Russians enter into hot pursuit. Even though Turkey is rediscovering its Islamic identity and is drawing away from NATO, still, NATO threatens to side with Turkey in the standoff and ask Russians to back off. Skirmishes threaten to begin on the European front.
The US economy and military is under tremendous stress. The domestic budget deficit has grown at staggering 14 trillion dollars. Inflation is 12 percent, local jobless figure is at 40 million. The mass migration of millions of skilled Muslims has created a serious crisis of production and growth in industry and economy. Industrial produce have gone down 40% and market shares lost to powerful emerging economies of China, Far east and India. Global warming, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes and snow storms have damaged over 7 trillion dollars of economic infrastructure in just 2 years. US forces are spread thin all over the globe – at least 3 quarters of a million troops in 120 countries and lands.
There is nervousness and panic in the US government. The security of fuel assets and fuel routes has not produced the desired response in mainland for economic turnaround. This is when a group of local white Supremacist militia of a doomsday cult, fed up with the policies of US government launches a devastating attack on US power and communication infrastructure crippling the economy to the tune of many trillion dollars in over a week. From nervousness, the situation becomes desperate for US government. US media, under the influence of AIPAC, the Israeli lobby, starts a massive global propaganda that attack on US infrastructure has come from Muslim extremists based in Middle East and Pak-Afghan region.
In trade talks with China, US insist that China reduce duties on US products, strengthen Yuan and stop influencing economic spheres in Far East and Asia. US threaten to stop Chinese oil supplies from Gulf, unless China stops giving subsidy to Chinese goods in Asia and European markets to make way for Americans products. China threatens to abandon dollar in international trade and starts dumping from its reserves of over a trillion dollar foreign exchange. US economy takes fatal dive as dollar collapses in international forex market as all countries start to make switch to Gold or other currencies.
Tensions quickly flare and talks break down. US intercepts bulk oil cargo ships from Gulf carrying oil for China. China threatens to use force and begins war games in Taiwanese straits. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan feel intimidated and ask US to interfere after failing to convince China. Tensions rapidly flare up around the Korean Peninsula also as a North Korean Destroyer is sunk by South Korean mine. Chinese war games are taken as hostile by US and Pacific fleet is mobilized to counter rapidly building Chinese military presence in the region. Chinese Vice Premier visits Uighur autonomous region and is assassinated by a US backed Uighur separatist group. China demands extradition of groups‘ leader from US. US refuses to hand over the suspect and situation becomes critical between US and China in Asia.
Pakistan and India almost maintain their present status quo in bilateral relations in 2014. Kashmir remains a sore issue and clashes along the LoC and working boundary are a routine. India has made progress in leaps and bounds in economic and military spheres and continues to pose serious challenges to Pakistan in both spheres but the nuke deterrent maintains a credible balance despite very bad terms between the two countries.
India is the main ally and military beneficiary from US. US have cultivated India to act as counter balance against China in case of US-China conflict scenario and to counter balance Pakistan for fear of an “Islamic” nuclear threat. Though, India had used the US military and economic dependence upon Delhi to build its own military potential as a regional civilization capable of challenging even China and US independently, its own desires were not to take sides in any US-China conflict and had decided to play a game of waiting to see which civilization survives or weakens to allow the breakout of Hindu civilization in Asia. India had given military bases to US for operations in East Asia but had not committed to fight alongside US against China. US is concerned at this arrangement.
But within India, Naxalite Maoists have become the greatest internal security challenge for the Indian federation, overrunning almost 40% of India in the “Red Corridor”. Indian army fights a losing war against the Maoists in the thick jungles of rural India. Sikhs’ movement has gained momentum. In the seven sister states in East, rebellions were already simmering at high levels putting extreme pressure on the Indian federation.
Despite the serious frictions between Pakistan and US/NATO alliance over Afghanistan, Pakistan has constructively engaged with US and the West. Pakistan also remained a close friend of China and therefore is not trusted by the US in a US-China conflict scenario. Even though there is no visible Chinese military presence on Pakistani soil, the proximity of Pakistan and China and their close ties is a matter of serious concern for US. Also, China’s assistance to Pakistan in the field of nuclear and missile technologies which have given Pakistan the ability to choke all the fuel supplies and shipping from the Gulf if US flotilla decides to take battle station close to Chinese mainland. Also, Chinese presence in Gwadar keeps an eye on the US in the Gulf. Pakistan, from the US perspective, is an unreliable ‘ally’.
US intelligence sources had predicted in 1998 that China would take atleast until 2020 to be able to develop enough force projection capability to match US military presence in Asia and to threaten US mainland in case of a nuke exchange. In 1998, Chinese were overwhelmingly inferior to US in space and satellite warfare, Fighter aircrafts, reconnaissance and surveillance, Communications, missile defense, Naval force projection capability and survival capability in an NBC warfare environment.
But in 2002, Russia entered into a strategic defense alliance with China to transfer Russian high technology military knowledge of Fighter aircrafts, missile defense and space warfare to China and the collaboration rapidly polished off a decade of Chinese research and development. Americans had revised their estimates in 2004 and had then predicted that Chinese would have requisite force projection and survival capability against a massive US unconventional strike by 2015. US military commanders had sent a summary to White House in 2004 that if China reaches the threshold of its capability to not just strike the US mainland but also survive a massive counter strike by US, then it would become almost impossible to eliminate the Chinese threat to US interests in the 21st century within the acceptable cost and collateral damage. US had already devised a strategy to hit Chinese Asian interests before China could cross that red line and become a serious unmanageable threat to US.
Provoked by the domestic economic meltdown due to collapse of US dollar, Chinese stubbornness to concede grounds in trade talks and threatened by radical development of Chinese capability to strike at US Space assets and the mainland, US was already contemplating plans and, leading with its control over the world media, create a threat perception in order to justify a possible first-strike on the Chinese mainland.
Almost at the same time, BJP rules India with hardliners from RSS virtually controlling the Indian State through their Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the butcher of Gujarat. Col. Purohit, the notorious Indian Military Intelligence officer responsible for Samjhota express blasts and known for his links with Hindu Saffron brigades had been released by the courts for want of evidence and now serves as the head of Pakistan Desk in Indian secret service RAW.
As the Indian Cabinet met in Delhi, a group of 6 Naxalite Maoists stealthily sneaked into the parliament and opened fire killing over 100 people from government, security forces and media. BJP immediately puts the blame on Kashmiri groups and blames ISI and Pakistan. Indian cabinet orders mobilization of Indian forces. Under the Cold Start doctrine, independent Battle groups (IBG‘s) of Indian army were secretly told to warm up for an immediate invasion, while the India launched a massive global diplomatic and media campaign to isolate Pakistan.
On the surface, Indians kept the crisis on diplomatic and media plains and sent high level delegations to Islamabad for negotiations giving perception to Pakistan that crisis can be resolved diplomatically but on the ground, the invasion was ordered within 24 hours when Indian delegation return back to Delhi.
The Armageddon is about to begin……
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