Monday, 14 November 2011

Italy Is Finished, Mathematically beyond Point of No Return: Barclays

Euphoria may have returned briefly courtesy of yet another promise  for a resignation that will likely not be effectuated for weeks or  months, if at all, and already someone has done the math on what the  events in the past several days reveal for Italy. That someone is  Barcalys, the math is not pretty, and the conclusion is that "Italy is now mathematically beyond point of no return"

Summary from Barclays Capital inst sales:

  1. 1.At this point, it seems Italy is now. mathematically beyond point of no return.
  2. While reforms are necessary, in and of itself not be enough to prevent crisis.
  3. Reason? Simple math–growth and austerity not enough to offset cost of debt.
  4. On our ests, yields above 5.5% is inflection point where game is over.
  5. The danger:high rates reinforce stability concerns, leading to higher rates.
  6. and deeper conviction of self sustaining credit event and eventual default.
  7. We think decisions at eurozone summit is step forward but EFSF not adequate.
  8. Time has run out–policy reforms not sufficient to break neg mkt dynamics.
  9. Investors do not have the patience to wait for austerity, growth to work.
  10. And rate of change in negatives not enuff to offset slow drip of positives.
  11. Conclusion: We think ECB needs to step up to the plate, print and buy bonds.
  12. At the moment ECB remains unwilling to be lender last resort on scale needed.
  13. But frankly will have hand forced by market given massive systemic risk.

Hint:Not Good.Sell EUR, Buy Gold The broader referenced report can be found here on Zero Hedge.

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